Jack Lowden leads trader sentiment at 37% implied probability after recent endorsements from Slow Horses co-star Gary Oldman and podcaster Richard Osman, combined with his proven spy-drama credentials in the Apple TV+ series and Scottish heritage echoing Sean Connery. Final screen tests involving Lowden, Callum Turner, and Josh O’Connor wrapped in late October 2026, narrowing a shortlist that previously included Jacob Elordi and Jack O’Connell, both now reportedly out. Turner sits at 17.8% on the strength of his Masters of the Air action work and high-profile marriage to Dua Lipa, while “no actor chosen yet” at 25.3% reflects the absence of an official announcement despite producer Amy Pascal’s earlier target of a 2026 decision. The market’s volatility tracks these insider reports and the imminent but unconfirmed casting timeline for the Denis Villeneuve-directed film.