President Donald Trump has repeatedly threatened to invoke the Insurrection Act in response to protests against federal immigration enforcement, most notably during January 2026 unrest in Minneapolis involving ICE operations. However, no formal invocation has occurred as of November 2026. Discussions around National Guard deployments, executive orders on civil disturbances, and post-midterm election scenarios have raised questions about potential use, but courts have limited related domestic military actions and the statutory threshold for insurrection or overwhelmed local authorities remains high. Trader consensus at low probabilities for invocation by year-end reflects the lack of qualifying conditions met to date, amid ongoing legal constraints under the Posse Comitatus Act and bipartisan reform proposals. Scheduled events like further congressional oversight or localized unrest could still influence outcomes.