Strong El Niño conditions, with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center assigning over 90% odds of a very strong event through fall and winter 2026-27, represent the main driver shaping early-season temperature and precipitation patterns. A warm ridge currently suppressing Arctic air across the northern tier has kept measurable snowfall (typically 0.1 inch or greater per National Weather Service criteria) confined to the highest mountain elevations, where isolated dustings occurred in late August and early September. Historical first-snow medians place October events in the northern Rockies and Plains, November across the Upper Midwest and interior Northeast, and early December in cities such as New York. Short-term National Weather Service probability forecasts and the next CPC update scheduled for October 8 will provide key signals on whether an early cold outbreak can overcome the El Niño warmth and shift timing.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডFirst snow of the 2026 season
$12,111 Vol.

Buffalo, NY by October 31
67%

Denver, CO by October 31
78%

Minneapolis, MN by October 31
56%

Salt Lake City, UT by October 31
47%

Boston, MA by November 15
69%

Buffalo, NY by November 15
68%

Chicago, IL by November 15
79%

Denver, CO by November 15
63%

Detroit, MI by November 15
87%

Indianapolis, IN by November 15
91%

Kansas City, MO by November 15
53%

Minneapolis, MN by November 15
90%

Pittsburgh, PA by November 15
65%

Salt Lake City, UT by November 15
79%

Boston, MA by November 30
84%

Buffalo, NY by November 30
94%

Chicago, IL by November 30
78%

Cincinnati, OH by November 30
83%

Dallas, TX by November 30
30%

Denver, CO by November 30
99%

Detroit, MI by November 30
85%

Indianapolis, IN by November 30
98%

Kansas City, MO by November 30
72%

Minneapolis, MN by November 30
94%

Nashville, TN by November 30
29%

New York City, NY by November 30
68%

Philadelphia, PA by November 30
88%

Pittsburgh, PA by November 30
77%

Salt Lake City, UT by November 30
85%

St. Louis, MO by November 30
75%

Washington, DC by November 30
43%
$12,111 Vol.

Buffalo, NY by October 31
67%

Denver, CO by October 31
78%

Minneapolis, MN by October 31
56%

Salt Lake City, UT by October 31
47%

Boston, MA by November 15
69%

Buffalo, NY by November 15
68%

Chicago, IL by November 15
79%

Denver, CO by November 15
63%

Detroit, MI by November 15
87%

Indianapolis, IN by November 15
91%

Kansas City, MO by November 15
53%

Minneapolis, MN by November 15
90%

Pittsburgh, PA by November 15
65%

Salt Lake City, UT by November 15
79%

Boston, MA by November 30
84%

Buffalo, NY by November 30
94%

Chicago, IL by November 30
78%

Cincinnati, OH by November 30
83%

Dallas, TX by November 30
30%

Denver, CO by November 30
99%

Detroit, MI by November 30
85%

Indianapolis, IN by November 30
98%

Kansas City, MO by November 30
72%

Minneapolis, MN by November 30
94%

Nashville, TN by November 30
29%

New York City, NY by November 30
68%

Philadelphia, PA by November 30
88%

Pittsburgh, PA by November 30
77%

Salt Lake City, UT by November 30
85%

St. Louis, MO by November 30
75%

Washington, DC by November 30
43%
Any amount of snowfall qualifies, including a report of "T" (trace) - snow observed but too little to measure. Once snowfall is reported, this market resolves "Yes" immediately, without waiting for the rest of the window. This market resolves "No" only if no snowfall is reported for any day of the window.
The observation day is the National Weather Service climate day at KDEN (midnight to midnight local time, America/Denver).
Resolution is based on the station's first published snowfall figure for each day, as given in the first final Daily Climate Report for that day. Intermediate reports issued during the day are not used. Subsequent revisions or corrections will not be considered; the first published value is final. A report whose snowfall value is missing (for example, shown as "M") does not count as a published value; the snowfall figure for that day will be taken from the first subsequent report that includes one. If a day's snowfall value is missing but the month-to-date or season-to-date snowfall total in that day's final report is higher than in the previous day's final report, snow fell on that day and this market resolves "Yes". This market resolves as soon as its outcome is determined - "Yes" as soon as any day's report shows snowfall, or "No" as soon as every day of the window has a published snowfall figure and every figure is zero. There is no waiting period. If any day's snowfall figure remains unpublished, the market will remain open until the earlier of the figure being published or the 3rd day after the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, at which point any such day is treated as zero snowfall.
The resolution source for this market is the NWS Daily Climate Report for KDEN, issued as product CLIDEN. That page shows the latest report only; past daily reports are archived on the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/list.phtml?by=pil&pil=CLIDEN.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Sep 2, 2026, 4:27 PM ET
Any amount of snowfall qualifies, including a report of "T" (trace) - snow observed but too little to measure. Once snowfall is reported, this market resolves "Yes" immediately, without waiting for the rest of the window. This market resolves "No" only if no snowfall is reported for any day of the window.
The observation day is the National Weather Service climate day at KDEN (midnight to midnight local time, America/Denver).
Resolution is based on the station's first published snowfall figure for each day, as given in the first final Daily Climate Report for that day. Intermediate reports issued during the day are not used. Subsequent revisions or corrections will not be considered; the first published value is final. A report whose snowfall value is missing (for example, shown as "M") does not count as a published value; the snowfall figure for that day will be taken from the first subsequent report that includes one. If a day's snowfall value is missing but the month-to-date or season-to-date snowfall total in that day's final report is higher than in the previous day's final report, snow fell on that day and this market resolves "Yes". This market resolves as soon as its outcome is determined - "Yes" as soon as any day's report shows snowfall, or "No" as soon as every day of the window has a published snowfall figure and every figure is zero. There is no waiting period. If any day's snowfall figure remains unpublished, the market will remain open until the earlier of the figure being published or the 3rd day after the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, at which point any such day is treated as zero snowfall.
The resolution source for this market is the NWS Daily Climate Report for KDEN, issued as product CLIDEN. That page shows the latest report only; past daily reports are archived on the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/list.phtml?by=pil&pil=CLIDEN.
Strong El Niño conditions, with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center assigning over 90% odds of a very strong event through fall and winter 2026-27, represent the main driver shaping early-season temperature and precipitation patterns. A warm ridge currently suppressing Arctic air across the northern tier has kept measurable snowfall (typically 0.1 inch or greater per National Weather Service criteria) confined to the highest mountain elevations, where isolated dustings occurred in late August and early September. Historical first-snow medians place October events in the northern Rockies and Plains, November across the Upper Midwest and interior Northeast, and early December in cities such as New York. Short-term National Weather Service probability forecasts and the next CPC update scheduled for October 8 will provide key signals on whether an early cold outbreak can overcome the El Niño warmth and shift timing.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড

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