Eileen Gu holds U.S. birthright citizenship by virtue of her San Francisco birth and American father, a status protected by the 14th Amendment and difficult to revoke under current statutes that require narrow grounds such as naturalization fraud rather than athletic representation of another country. Trader consensus at 98.4% on “No” by the December 31, 2026 resolution date reflects the absence of any formal State Department expatriation proceeding, DOJ denaturalization filing, or legislative change targeting her status despite renewed scrutiny during the 2026 Winter Olympics and reports of multimillion-dollar Chinese government support. No credible reporting indicates active administrative action. Low-probability shifts could still arise from unexpected congressional amendments to expatriation rules or newly documented evidence of prior citizenship fraud, though neither has surfaced.