Christopher Luxon’s survival of a National Party caucus confidence vote in mid-August, the second such test in four months, has anchored trader expectations that he will remain prime minister through September 30. With the November general election approaching, party MPs have publicly reaffirmed unity and advanced the legislative agenda, including recent passage of the India free-trade agreement. Institutional barriers in New Zealand’s Westminster system—requiring either a successful internal challenge or formal no-confidence motion—combined with the narrow window before the deadline, reinforce the current 97.5% implied probability for “No.” A sudden health event or unforeseen caucus shift remains theoretically possible but lacks supporting developments in recent reporting.